Sid Meier on Probability and Player Perception
GameSpot · Talk · 54 min · 2010 · YouTube title: GDC 2010: Sid Meier Keynote - "Everything You Know is Wrong"
Why it's here
HN points to it as the best talk on how people misunderstand probabilities and how designers handle that.
What it covers
Sid Meier's GDC 2010 keynote on how players perceive probability in games, including how Civilization's odds were adjusted because players misjudged them.