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Bayes' rule, base rates and false positives | 3Blue1Brown

3Blue1Brown · Explainer · 21 min · 2020 · YouTube title: The medical test paradox, and redesigning Bayes' rule
Why it's here

HN's go-to link whenever Bayesian reasoning, base rates or imperfect tests come up.

What it covers

3Blue1Brown explains why positive results on accurate medical tests are often false positives, and reframes Bayes' rule using likelihood ratios (Bayes factors) to update odds. It uses visual examples to make the reasoning intuitive.